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15

Supreme Winner

5yo Gelding · 8-8

Sha Tin · Shenyang Handicap · 1m

#12

Rank

Odds

SP

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 8.7)

Highest class: BHA20
Recent avg: C2.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Happy Valley 19/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 1m Gd 11619/11C?C0 @ Sha Tin 21/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR - · 1m 115BHA20 @ Sha Tin 08/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 20 · 7f Gd 115 · beat its mark08/02/2026 · OR 20 par8/0220OR 20BHA20 @ Sha Tin 06/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 20 · 6f Gd 115 · beat its mark06/04/2026 · OR 20 parBHA27 @ Sha Tin 03/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 27 · 6f Gd 122 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 27 par3/0527OR 27BHA27 @ Sha Tin 07/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 27 · 7f Gd 121 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 27 parBHA27 @ Sha Tin 21/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 27 · 7f Gd 122 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 27 par21/0627OR 27BHA28 @ Sha Tin 04/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 28 · 6f Gd 123 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 28 parBHA27 @ Sha Tin 13/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 27 · 7f GF 122 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 27 par13/0927OR 27projClass-projected finish: 8th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Sha TinBHA279th9th0
2026-07-04Sha TinBHA287th7th0
2026-06-21Sha TinBHA273rd3rd0
2026-06-07Sha TinBHA2710th10th0
2026-05-03Sha TinBHA275th5th0
2026-04-06Sha TinBHA201st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/116/0421/0613/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1640% of fieldRange 1-15 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength60%

Delivery trend +1.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 16.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/11/20258th25/10%36%+0.36
21/01/202611th9/276%23%-0.53
08/02/20266th25/10%62%+0.62
06/04/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
03/05/20265th17/255%69%+0.14
07/06/202610th25/10%31%+0.31
21/06/20263rd20/10%85%+0.85
04/07/20267th7/163%45%-0.18
13/09/20269th18/15%38%+0.33