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5

The Concentration

6yo Gelding · 9-6

Sha Tin · Shenyang Handicap · 1m

#5

Rank

Odds

18/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class: BHA28
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA28 @ Sha Tin 20/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 28 · 7f Gd 123 · beat its mark20/12/2025 · OR 28 par20/1228OR 28C0 @ Sha Tin 04/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 7f Gd 122BHA33 @ Sha Tin 08/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 33 · 7f Gd 128 · beat its mark08/02/2026 · OR 33 par8/0233OR 33C0 @ Sha Tin 08/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR - · 7f Gd 135BHA42 @ Sha Tin 12/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 42 · 7f Gd 117 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 42 par12/0442OR 42BHA42 @ Sha Tin 09/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 42 · 7f Goo 119 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 42 parBHA42 @ Sha Tin 31/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 42 · 6f Gd 118 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 42 par31/0542OR 42BHA41 @ Sha Tin 27/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 41 · 6f Gd 117 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 41 parBHA39 @ Sha Tin 13/09/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 39 · 7f GF 134 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 39 par13/0939OR 39projClass-projected finish: 14th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Sha TinBHA3914th14th0
2026-06-27Sha TinBHA4113th13th0
2026-05-31Sha TinBHA427th7th0
2026-05-09Sha TinBHA427th7th0
2026-04-12Sha TinBHA427th7th0
2026-03-08Sha Tin?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/128/0331/0513/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1653% of fieldRange 16-16 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -8.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/12/20253rd11/142%85%+0.43
04/01/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
08/02/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
08/03/20263rd5/287%85%-0.02
12/04/20267th7/163%54%-0.09
09/05/20267th8/158%54%-0.04
31/05/20267th15/261%54%-0.07
27/06/202613th50/10%8%+0.08
13/09/202614th9/153%0%-0.53