3
Beauty Waves
6yo Gelding · 8-12
Sha Tin · The National Day Cup (Group 3 Handicap) · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Sha Tin | BHA107 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA109 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Sha Tin | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Sha Tin | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sha Tin | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength14%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 04/01/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 25/01/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/02/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 08/03/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 18% | +0.02 |
| 06/04/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 26/04/2026 | 8th | 200/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/05/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 27/06/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |