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6yo Gelding · 8-8
Sha Tin · The National Day Cup (Group 3 Handicap) · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: BHA60
Recent avg: C9.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Sha Tin | BHA100 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sha Tin | BHA97 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Sha Tin | BHA97 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 26/10/2025 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 07/12/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 55% | -0.22 |
| 20/12/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 29/03/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 29/04/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 20/05/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 70% | -0.06 |