2
Crimson Flash
5yo Gelding · 8-13
Sha Tin · The National Day Cup (Group 3 Handicap) · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
16/5
Win Prob
69%
Place Prob
53%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Sha Tin | BHA100 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA100 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Sha Tin | BHA99 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Sha Tin | BHA92 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 14/01/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 45% | -0.31 |
| 01/02/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 18/03/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 12/04/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 91% | +0.75 |
| 31/05/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 44% | -0.40 |
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 15/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |