8
Johannes Brahms
5yo Gelding · 8-3
Sha Tin · The National Day Cup (Group 3 Handicap) · 5f
#8
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Sha Tin | BHA90 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-12-10 | Happy Valley | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Sha Tin | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Sha Tin | BHA95 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA98 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 7-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -11.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/02/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 02/03/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 85% | +0.69 |
| 23/03/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 62% | +0.09 |
| 31/05/2025 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 40% | -0.47 |
| 28/09/2025 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 26/10/2025 | 12th | 6/1 | 68% | 8% | -0.60 |
| 10/12/2025 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 9% | -0.44 |
| 01/01/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 06/04/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |