7
Magic Control
6yo Gelding · 8-3
Sha Tin · The National Day Cup (Group 3 Handicap) · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Sha Tin | BHA88 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Sha Tin | BHA87 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Sha Tin | BHA91 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 22/02/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 18/03/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 11% | +0.06 |
| 12/04/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 29/04/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 56% | +0.13 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 15/07/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 10% | -0.16 |
| 06/09/2026 | 3rd | 200/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |