1
Raging Blizzard
7yo Gelding · 9-9
Sha Tin · The National Day Cup (Group 3 Handicap) · 5f
#6
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Sha Tin | BHA117 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA115 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Sha Tin | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Sha Tin | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Sha Tin | BHA104 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-25 | Sha Tin | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength73%
Delivery trend -8.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 92% | +0.40 |
| 23/11/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 14/12/2025 | 2nd | 50/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 25/01/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 22/02/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 06/04/2026 | 3rd | 66/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 26/04/2026 | 3rd | 80/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 89% | +0.31 |
| 21/06/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 11% | -0.63 |