5
Tomodachi Kokoroe
8yo Gelding · 8-10
Sha Tin · The National Day Cup (Group 3 Handicap) · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Sha Tin | BHA105 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA106 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Sha Tin | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Sha Tin | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sha Tin | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength67%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.37 |
| 25/01/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 01/02/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 08/03/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.46 |
| 06/04/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 26/04/2026 | 7th | 150/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |
| 21/06/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 06/09/2026 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |