IvyArcIvyArc
11

Alabama Song

4yo Gelding · 8-8

Sha Tin · Chengdu Handicap · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

81%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 7.8)

Highest class: BHA42
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Sha Tin 22/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR - · 6f Gd 12322/02C?BHA48 @ Sha Tin 01/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 48 · 6f Gd 124 · beat its mark01/03/2026 · OR 48 parBHA46 @ Sha Tin 15/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 46 · 6f GF 123 · beat its mark15/03/2026 · OR 46 par15/0346OR 46BHA44 @ Sha Tin 29/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 44 · 6f Gd 122 · beat its mark29/03/2026 · OR 44 parBHA42 @ Sha Tin 12/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 42 · 7f Gd 117 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 42 par12/0442OR 42BHA47 @ Sha Tin 03/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 47 · 7f Yie 126 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 47 parBHA47 @ Sha Tin 24/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 47 · 7f Gd 122 · beat its mark24/05/2026 · OR 47 par24/0547OR 47BHA47 @ Sha Tin 21/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 47 · 7f Gd 124 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 47 parBHA46 @ Sha Tin 12/07/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 46 · 7f GF 123 · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 46 par12/0746OR 46projClass-projected finish: 12th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-12Sha TinBHA4613th13th0
2026-06-21Sha TinBHA479th9th0
2026-05-24Sha TinBHA4710th10th0
2026-05-03Sha TinBHA4714th14th0
2026-04-12Sha TinBHA421st1st0
2026-03-29Sha TinBHA444th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0229/0324/0512/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1687% of fieldRange 1-16 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength48%

Delivery trend -3.6% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/02/20263rd16/116%85%+0.69
01/03/202610th9/153%31%-0.22
15/03/20266th7/163%55%-0.09
29/03/20264th6/168%77%+0.08
12/04/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
03/05/202614th14/126%0%-0.26
24/05/202610th28/10%31%+0.31
21/06/20269th14/126%33%+0.07
12/07/202613th14/126%8%-0.19