13
Diamond Sparkle
4yo Gelding · 8-6
Sha Tin · Chengdu Handicap · 7f
#13
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.6 /10 (raw 8.6)
Highest class: BHA44
Recent avg: C4.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | BHA44 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Sha Tin | BHA48 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Sha Tin | BHA50 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Sha Tin | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1620% of fieldRange 4-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength41%
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 36% | +0.10 |
| 06/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 24/05/2026 | 13th | 18/1 | 5% | 8% | +0.02 |
| 04/07/2026 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 06/09/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |