12
Francis Meynell
5yo Gelding · 8-8
Sha Tin · Chengdu Handicap · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sha Tin | BHA51 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Sha Tin | BHA51 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Sha Tin | BHA51 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sha Tin | BHA49 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1647% of fieldRange 10-16 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.7% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/02/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 01/03/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 77% | +0.08 |
| 29/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 92% | +0.40 |
| 19/04/2026 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 46% | -0.36 |
| 24/05/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 62% | -0.24 |
| 01/07/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.25 |
| 09/09/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |