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15

Family Fortune

6yo Gelding · 8-7

Sha Tin · Jinan Handicap · 1m 1f

#8

Rank

Odds

SP

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: BHA27
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Happy Valley 28/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 1m Gd 12928/01C?C0 @ Sha Tin 22/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR - · 1m1f Gd 129BHA33 @ Sha Tin 15/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 33 · 1m Std 129 · beat its mark15/03/2026 · OR 33 par15/0333OR 33C0 @ Happy Valley 15/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 1m Gd 128C0 @ Happy Valley 29/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 1m1f Gd 13429/04C?BHA37 @ Sha Tin 17/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 37 · 1m1f Goo 132 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 37 par5 @ Happy Valley 03/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 1m GF 1333/065C0 @ Sha Tin 01/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 1m GF 119C0 @ Happy Valley 16/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 1m1f Gd 12116/09C?projClass-projected finish: 7th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Happy Valley?5th5th0
2026-07-01Sha Tin?8th8th0
2026-06-03Happy Valley51st1st0
2026-05-17Sha TinBHA374th4th0
2026-04-29Happy Valley?3rd3rd0
2026-04-15Happy Valley?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0115/043/0616/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1673% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength79%

Delivery trend +3.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/01/20265th9/153%64%+0.11
22/02/20267th12/137%54%+0.17
15/03/20265th14/126%69%+0.43
15/04/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
29/04/20263rd12/137%82%+0.45
17/05/20264th7/163%77%+0.14
03/06/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
01/07/20268th28/10%46%+0.46
16/09/20265th22/10%64%+0.64