IvyArcIvyArc
7

Lucky Year

5yo Gelding · 8-12

Sha Tin · Jinan Handicap · 1m 1f

#7

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: BHA48
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Sha Tin 01/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR - · 7f Gd 1271/07C?BHA51 @ Sha Tin 08/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 51 · 7f Gd 126 · beat its mark08/02/2026 · OR 51 parC0 @ Sha Tin 08/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR - · 1m Gd 1258/03C?BHA49 @ Sha Tin 06/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 49 · 1m Gd 128 · beat its mark06/04/2026 · OR 49 parBHA49 @ Sha Tin 09/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 49 · 1m Goo 124 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 49 par9/0549OR 49BHA50 @ Sha Tin 07/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 50 · 1m Gd 126 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 50 parBHA50 @ Sha Tin 21/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 50 · 1m Gd 127 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 50 par21/0650OR 50BHA51 @ Happy Valley 08/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 51 · 1m Gd 126 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 51 parBHA48 @ Sha Tin 13/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 48 · 1m GF 124 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 48 par13/0948OR 48projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Sha TinBHA482nd2nd0
2026-07-08Happy ValleyBHA514th4th0
2026-06-21Sha TinBHA503rd3rd0
2026-06-07Sha TinBHA503rd3rd0
2026-05-09Sha TinBHA492nd2nd0
2026-04-06Sha TinBHA499th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/076/0421/0613/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1667% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength66%

Delivery trend -6.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/07/20257th50/10%54%+0.54
08/02/20264th14/126%75%+0.49
08/03/20266th14/126%62%+0.35
06/04/20269th14/126%33%+0.07
09/05/20262nd16/116%92%+0.77
07/06/20263rd9/153%85%+0.32
21/06/20263rd9/276%85%+0.08
08/07/20264th15/890%57%-0.33
13/09/20262nd6/168%92%+0.24