12
On The Lash
6yo Gelding · 8-6
Sha Tin · Jinan Handicap · 1m 1f
#3
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 7.9)
Highest class: BHA29
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Sha Tin | BHA42 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sha Tin | BHA42 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA36 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Sha Tin | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1660% of fieldRange 10-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 15/11/2025 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 18/01/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 31% | -0.27 |
| 22/02/2026 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 46% | -0.09 |
| 04/03/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 01/04/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 17/05/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 13/06/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.14 |
| 27/06/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |