IvyArcIvyArc
6

Romantic Fantasy

6yo Gelding · 8-13

Sha Tin · Jinan Handicap · 1m 1f

#1

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

48%

Place Prob

41%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength21%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: BHA36
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Sha Tin 22/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR - · 1m1f Gd 13222/02C?C0 @ Happy Valley 25/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 1m3f Gd 133C0 @ Happy Valley 15/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 1m1f Gd 11515/04C?C0 @ Happy Valley 29/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 1m3f Gd 119BHA40 @ Sha Tin 17/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 40 · 1m1f Goo 116 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 40 par17/0540OR 40BHA45 @ Sha Tin 31/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 45 · 1m2f Gd 123 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 45 parBHA45 @ Sha Tin 13/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 45 · 1m1f Yie 123 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 45 par13/0645OR 45BHA45 @ Sha Tin 27/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 45 · 1m2f Gd 120 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 45 parC0 @ Happy Valley 16/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 1m1f Gd 12216/09C?projClass-projected finish: 4th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Happy Valley?1st1st0
2026-06-27Sha TinBHA455th5th0
2026-06-13Sha TinBHA458th8th0
2026-05-31Sha TinBHA4514th14th0
2026-05-17Sha TinBHA401st1st0
2026-04-29Happy Valley?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0229/0413/0616/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 16100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/02/20262nd6/168%92%+0.24
25/03/20262nd4/179%91%+0.12
15/04/20263rd5/174%82%+0.08
29/04/20265th9/276%64%-0.13
17/05/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
31/05/202614th9/153%0%-0.53
13/06/20268th20/10%46%+0.46
27/06/20265th50/10%69%+0.69
16/09/20261st18/15%100%+0.95