1
Victor Supreme
4yo Gelding · 9-9
Sha Tin · Jinan Handicap · 1m 1f
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Sha Tin | BHA59 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Sha Tin | BHA49 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Sha Tin | BHA47 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Sha Tin | BHA49 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Sha Tin | BHA50 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sha Tin | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1687% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength64%
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 23% | -0.03 |
| 18/01/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 19/02/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 69% | -0.02 |
| 08/03/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 69% | -0.12 |
| 06/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 69% | -0.15 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 92% | +0.32 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 13/09/2026 | 9th | 11/8 | 93% | 38% | -0.54 |