15
Mabubu
5yo Gelding · 9-0
Sha Tin · Chongqing Handicap · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | BHA53 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Sha Tin | BHA56 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sha Tin | BHA58 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA59 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Sha Tin | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Sha Tin | BHA59 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1640% of fieldRange 1-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength23%
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/2025 | 1st | 28/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 01/02/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 46% | -0.28 |
| 22/02/2026 | 13th | 8/1 | 58% | 8% | -0.50 |
| 17/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 77% | +0.61 |
| 13/06/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 04/07/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 18% | -0.29 |
| 06/09/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |