13
Monta Frutta
7yo Gelding · 8-5
Sha Tin · Chongqing Handicap · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: BHA42
Recent avg: C4.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | BHA42 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sha Tin | BHA48 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Sha Tin | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Sha Tin | BHA50 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Sha Tin | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-01-04 | Sha Tin | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1687% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength70%
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 64% | +0.11 |
| 27/04/2025 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/12/2025 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 04/01/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 91% | +0.22 |
| 21/01/2026 | 10th | 7/2 | 82% | 18% | -0.63 |
| 08/02/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 27% | -0.49 |
| 22/02/2026 | 13th | 22/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 12/07/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 06/09/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 85% | +0.79 |