3
Oldtown
5yo Gelding · 9-6
Sha Tin · Chongqing Handicap · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Sha Tin | BHA57 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sha Tin | BHA57 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Sha Tin | BHA56 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA50 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Sha Tin | BHA54 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1687% of fieldRange 3-13 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength52%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/2025 | 14th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 11/01/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 62% | +0.25 |
| 19/02/2026 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 26/04/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 62% | +0.56 |
| 17/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 92% | +0.10 |
| 12/07/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 62% | -0.17 |
| 13/09/2026 | 12th | 22/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |