4
Top Dragon
5yo Gelding · 8-13
Sha Tin · Beijing Handicap · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Sha Tin | BHA80 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Sha Tin | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-04 | Sha Tin | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Sha Tin | BHA80 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength66%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2025 | 11th | 5/2 | 87% | 23% | -0.64 |
| 01/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 85% | -0.09 |
| 26/10/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 07/12/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 92% | +0.10 |
| 04/01/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |
| 01/02/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 69% | +0.53 |
| 19/02/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 89% | -0.05 |
| 22/03/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 54% | +0.12 |
| 01/07/2026 | 9th | 11/4 | 86% | 11% | -0.74 |