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9yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 98

Southwell · Weatherbys Racing Bank Handicap Chase · 2m 4f 88y

#4

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Bounced back to form on just his second start for the yard when determined winner of 8-runner handicap chase at Sedgefield (2m, good) 22 days ago. Step back up in trip won't inconvenience him and he's respected bidding to follow up from a 4 lb higher mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Market Rasen 15/10/2024 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 98 · 2m3f34y Gd 168 · below its mark15/10/2024 · OR 98 par15/105OR 985 @ Sedgefield 14/11/2024 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 93 · 2m77y Gd 167 · beat its mark14/11/2024 · OR 93 par5 @ Wetherby 07/12/2024 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 93 · 2m3f85y Sft 161 · below its mark07/12/2024 · OR 93 par7/125OR 935 @ Carlisle 09/03/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 93 · 2m4f198y Goo 166 · below its mark09/03/2025 · OR 93 par5 @ Newcastle 31/03/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 98 · 2m190y Goo 161 · below its mark31/03/2025 · OR 98 par31/035OR 984 @ Carlisle 19/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 96 · 2m3f61y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/04/2025 · OR 96 par5 @ Hexham 20/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 97 · 2m48y Gd 166 · below its mark20/05/2025 · OR 97 par20/055OR 976 @ Southwell 20/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 45 · 1m6f21y Std 126 · beat its mark20/01/2026 · OR 45 par5 @ Sedgefield 09/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 94 · 2m77y Goo 166 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 94 par9/095OR 94projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Sedgefield51st1st0
2026-01-20Southwell67th8th−1
2025-05-20Hexham56th6th0
2025-04-19Carlisle43rd2nd+1
2025-03-31Newcastle53rd3rd0
2025-03-09Carlisle53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/109/0320/059/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/10/20246th14/126%29%+0.02
14/11/20242nd10/382%83%+0.01
07/12/20243rd11/142%71%+0.29
09/03/20253rd17/255%60%+0.05
31/03/20253rd16/116%75%+0.59
19/04/20253rd11/271%71%+0.00
20/05/20256th13/266%38%-0.28
20/01/20267th33/10%25%+0.25
09/09/20261st14/126%100%+0.74