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Soldier In Mayo

6yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 94

Southwell · Weatherbys Racing Bank Handicap Chase · 2m 4f 88y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

94%

Place Prob

78%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Point winner who found some improvement to make a successful handicap hurdle debut in May 2025, showing a good attitude. Shaped well sent chasing when runner-up to a well-handicapped rival back at Bangor (2½m) on return last month and is open to improvement.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength47%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 16/01/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 2m190y Goo 15816/0152 @ Musselburgh 02/02/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 1m7f124y GS 156 · HIGHER CLASS2/0224 @ Hexham 13/03/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 2m48y Goo 159 · HIGHER CLASS13/0344 @ Sedgefield 03/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 2m3f188y Gd 160 · HIGHER CLASS3/0445 @ Bangor-on-Dee 17/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 90 · 2m3f123y Gd 165 · beat its mark17/05/2025 · OR 90 par17/055OR 905 @ Bangor-on-Dee 04/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 94 · 2m4f72y Goo 168 · below its mark04/09/2026 · OR 94 par4/095OR 94projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Bangor-on-Dee52nd2nd0
2025-05-17Bangor-on-Dee51st1st0
2025-04-03Sedgefield43rd2nd+1
2025-03-13Hexham44th3rd+1
2025-02-02Musselburgh26th2nd+3
2025-01-16Newcastle54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/012/0213/033/0417/054/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength91%

Delivery trend +3.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/01/20254th11/271%57%-0.14
02/02/20256th66/10%17%+0.17
13/03/20254th7/163%50%-0.13
03/04/20253rd9/153%71%+0.19
17/05/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
04/09/20262nd4/179%83%+0.04