2
Law Of Supply
8yo Gelding · 11-13 · OR 112
Southwell · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 3m 60y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Wincanton | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Hereford | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2025-11-25 | Hereford | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Kempton | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2025-04-19 | Huntingdon | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-03-01 | Newbury | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 433% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength55%
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2024 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 19/03/2024 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 16/10/2024 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 22/11/2024 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 12/12/2024 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 01/03/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 19/04/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 25/11/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 01/04/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |