1
Paper Mill
10yo Gelding · 11-13 · OR 112
Southwell · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 3m 60y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Worcester | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Uttoxeter | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Uttoxeter | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2025-11-27 | Uttoxeter | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Southwell | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-05-02 | Cheltenham | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 40% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
Delivery trend -8.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/02/2022 | 6th | 150/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 03/05/2024 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 38% | -0.18 |
| 02/05/2025 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 14/11/2025 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 60% | -0.32 |
| 27/11/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 04/09/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |