IvyArcIvyArc
7

Athena's Dream

4yo Filly · 10-8 · OR 81

Southwell · 'Smooth Radio - Always The Best Music' Novices' Handicap Hurdle · 3m 60y

#2

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Error-prone maiden who had been running to a fairly consistent level in staying handicaps. Didn't see out her race in change of headgear (retained) when well behind Crafty Gael at Worcester (23f) last time, though, and yard without a winner in 6½ months.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength8%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wincanton 15/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 1m7f50y Sft 142 · HIGHER CLASS15/0144 @ Hereford 11/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 2m53y Hvy 156 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Wincanton 01/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 87 · 2m3f179y Gd 145 · below its mark01/04/2026 · OR 87 par1/045OR 875 @ Taunton 22/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 84 · 2m3f1y Gd 146 · beat its mark22/04/2026 · OR 84 par5 @ Ludlow 10/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 79 · 2m7f174y Goo 145 · beat its mark10/05/2026 · OR 79 par10/055OR 795 @ Bangor-on-Dee 26/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 86 · 2m7f32y Goo 145 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 86 par5 @ Uttoxeter 15/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 86 · 2m7f70y Gd 147 · below its mark15/07/2026 · OR 86 par15/075OR 865 @ Fontwell 28/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 84 · 3m1f166y Gd 150 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 84 par5 @ Worcester 10/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 83 · 2m7f Gd 153 · below its mark10/09/2026 · OR 83 par10/095OR 83projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Worcester59th9th0
2026-08-28Fontwell52nd2nd0
2026-07-15Uttoxeter55th5th0
2026-06-26Bangor-on-Dee53rd3rd0
2026-05-10Ludlow52nd2nd0
2026-04-22Taunton54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0122/0415/0710/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength8%

Delivery trend -8.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/01/20268th50/10%36%+0.36
11/02/20266th22/10%38%+0.38
01/04/20267th33/10%40%+0.40
22/04/20264th22/10%67%+0.67
10/05/20262nd12/137%86%+0.49
26/06/20263rd9/276%71%-0.05
15/07/20265th8/158%56%-0.02
28/08/20262nd13/266%75%+0.09
10/09/20269th10/147%20%-0.27