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5

Cappa Lass

5yo Mare · 10-9 · OR 78

Southwell · 'Smooth Radio - Always The Best Music' Novices' Handicap Hurdle · 3m 60y

#6

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Runner-up on her completed start in Irish points. Little to enthuse over in 4 hurdle starts, not jumping well when pulled up on her handicap debut/return at Bangor (2½m, 25/1). Hopes of improvement pinned on first-time cheekpieces/step up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength47%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Haydock 04/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 1m7f144y Goo 158 · HIGHER CLASS4/0444 @ Bangor-on-Dee 18/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 2m145y Gd 150 · HIGHER CLASS18/0444 @ Bangor-on-Dee 16/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 2m145y Gd 151 · HIGHER CLASS16/054projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Bangor-on-Dee50
2026-05-16Bangor-on-Dee48th7th+1
2026-04-18Bangor-on-Dee47th6th+1
2026-04-04Haydock46th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0418/0416/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength14%

Delivery trend +1.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/04/20266th14/126%17%-0.10
18/04/20267th200/10%50%+0.50
16/05/20268th12/137%30%-0.07