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6

Captain Connor

4yo Gelding · 10-8 · OR 81

Southwell · 'Smooth Radio - Always The Best Music' Novices' Handicap Hurdle · 3m 60y

#3

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Relatively lightly-raced 4-y-o. Travelled well when career-best second behind hard-held winner at Stratford on stable debut. Did at least shape better than on his previous start when 11¼-length third at Plumpton (20.5f) latest. Worth a go over 3m and makes some each-way appeal in a weak race.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Huntingdon 22/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 1m7f171y Goo 15622/1154 @ Catterick 16/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 1m7f156y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Wetherby 22/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 2m Sft 154 · HIGHER CLASS22/0145 @ Market Rasen 05/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 89 · 2m4f139y Gd 152 · below its mark05/07/2026 · OR 89 par5 @ Uttoxeter 24/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 86 · 1m7f168y Gd 150 · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 86 par24/075OR 865 @ Stratford 25/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 83 · 2m6f7y GF 155 · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 83 par5 @ Newton Abbot 07/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 83 · 2m5f122y Gd 158 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 83 par7/095OR 835 @ Plumpton 20/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 81 · 2m4f116y Goo 151 · beat its mark20/09/2026 · OR 81 par20/095OR 81projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-20Plumpton53rd3rd0
2026-09-07Newton Abbot57th7th0
2026-08-25Stratford52nd2nd0
2026-07-24Uttoxeter58th8th0
2026-07-05Market Rasen57th7th0
2026-02-28Kelso3+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/115/077/0920/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength96%

Delivery trend -0.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/11/20253rd14/126%75%+0.49
16/12/20254th22/10%63%+0.63
22/01/20268th33/10%22%+0.22
05/07/20267th28/10%14%+0.14
24/07/20268th12/137%30%-0.07
25/08/20262nd33/10%86%+0.86
07/09/20267th18/15%14%+0.09
20/09/20263rd20/10%60%+0.60