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8

Could Be You

6yo Gelding · 10-7 · OR 76

Southwell · 'Smooth Radio - Always The Best Music' Novices' Handicap Hurdle · 3m 60y

#7

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Placed both starts in Irish points. Up in trip when showing first sign of ability under Rules behind Crafty Gael at Worcester (12/1) latest, in contention entering straight but ultimately well held following late mistakes. Needs a close look in the market with Richie McLernon aboard first time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 3 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.9 /10 (raw 7.8)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Lingfield 13/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 2m3f110y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS13/1244 @ Hereford 12/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR - · 2m53y Sft 157 · HIGHER CLASS12/0145 @ Ffos Las 21/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 83 · 2m4f Goo 152 · below its mark21/04/2026 · OR 83 par21/045OR 835 @ Worcester 10/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 78 · 2m7f Gd 153 · below its mark10/09/2026 · OR 78 par10/095OR 78projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Worcester58th8th0
2026-08-19Worcester50
2026-04-21Ffos Las59th9th0
2026-01-20Leicester4+1
2026-01-12Hereford411th10th+1
2025-12-27Chepstow3+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/1212/0121/0410/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -23.9% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/12/20253rd40/10%50%+0.50
12/01/202611th150/10%9%+0.09
21/04/20269th11/271%11%-0.60
10/09/20268th12/137%30%-0.07