2
Crafty Gael
7yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 95
Southwell · 'Smooth Radio - Always The Best Music' Novices' Handicap Hurdle · 3m 60y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
100%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Worcester | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Worcester | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA83 | 8th | 12th | −3 |
| 2026-04-16 | Limerick | BHA86 | 10th | 14th | −4 |
| 2026-03-22 | Limerick | BHA87 | 13th | 17th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08/2023 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 92% | +0.09 |
| 13/08/2023 | 3rd | 85/40 | 89% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 12/01/2024 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 53% | +0.06 |
| 22/03/2026 | 13th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 16/04/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 31% | +0.26 |
| 24/04/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 26/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 19/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 10/09/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |