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Jurassic Pet

6yo Mare · 12-0 · OR 97

Southwell · 'Smooth Radio - Always The Best Music' Novices' Handicap Hurdle · 3m 60y

#5

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winning pointer from a good jumping family. Showed some promise to hit the frame in maiden hurdles at Ludlow/Hereford in February. Not helped by an inefficient ride when well held on handicap bow at Exeter (23f, 22/1) latest. May do a bit better with Nico de Boinville replacing amateur on return.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ludlow 04/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 2m5f55y Sft 159 · HIGHER CLASS4/0244 @ Hereford 22/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 2m3f147y Sft 151 · HIGHER CLASS22/0245 @ Exeter 17/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 17 · OR 100 · 2m7f25y GS 168 · below its mark17/03/2026 · OR 100 par17/035OR 100projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-03-17Exeter510th10th0
2026-02-22Hereford43rd2nd+1
2026-02-04Ludlow44th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0222/0217/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength34%

Delivery trend -14.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/02/20264th28/10%73%+0.73
22/02/20263rd11/142%67%+0.25
17/03/202610th22/10%44%+0.44