IvyArcIvyArc
3

Ol Parson

5yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 95

Southwell · 'Smooth Radio - Always The Best Music' Novices' Handicap Hurdle · 3m 60y

#8

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Hit the frame last 2 starts in points. Only form in 3 maiden hurdle starts for Maike Magnussen came when beaten 11¼ lengths in a messy Roscommon maiden in July. Opening mark demands more, however, he may yet do better for new yard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲3
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 13.3 /10 (raw 9.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -3.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Punchestown 06/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 17 · OR - · 2m3f55y Goo 1666/06C8C8 @ Roscommon 06/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR - · 1m7f204y Gd 1586/07C8C8 @ Galway 29/07/2026 · Pos 14th of 20 · OR - · 2m6f Gd 16629/07C8projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-29Galway?14th18th−3
2026-07-06Roscommon?6th10th−3
2026-06-06Punchestown?9th13th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/066/0729/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength87%

Delivery trend -9.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/06/20269th66/10%50%+0.50
06/07/20266th50/10%62%+0.62
29/07/202614th125/10%32%+0.32