Bluegrass
7yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 115
Southwell · Old Stag 70th Birthday Handicap Hurdle · 1m 7f 182y
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Uttoxeter | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-02 | Chepstow | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Fakenham | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-02-05 | Doncaster | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-01-08 | Taunton | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-12-07 | Huntingdon | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 18/10/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 18/11/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 07/12/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 08/01/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 05/02/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 02/04/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.00 |
| 02/05/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 14% | -0.52 |