Duke Of Luckley
9yo Gelding · 11-13 · OR 120
Southwell · Old Stag 70th Birthday Handicap Hurdle · 1m 7f 182y
#1
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
52%
Place Prob
47%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Kelso | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-08-25 | Stratford | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Newton Abbot | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Southwell | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-22 | Worcester | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2025-09-16 | Uttoxeter | 4 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2024 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 22/11/2024 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 20/05/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 29/06/2025 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 17% | -0.39 |
| 20/07/2025 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 25% | +0.20 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 25/08/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 16/09/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |