8
Granny Hawkins
7yo Mare · 11-3 · OR 110
Southwell · Old Stag 70th Birthday Handicap Hurdle · 1m 7f 182y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
47%
Place Prob
45%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Market Rasen | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Stratford | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Hereford | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-25 | Hereford | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-07-27 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-06-09 | Southwell | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength89%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 14/04/2025 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 89% | +0.47 |
| 05/05/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 09/06/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 45% | -0.31 |
| 27/07/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 91% | +0.75 |
| 25/11/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 07/03/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 19/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 05/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |