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5yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 121

Southwell · Old Stag 70th Birthday Handicap Hurdle · 1m 7f 182y

#9

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful handicapper for Willie Mullins, including listed handicap success at Listowel this time last year. Now on a much-reduced mark having been well below form in first half of 2026 for current yard. Interesting to see if market hints at a revival on first start in Class 4 company.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength44%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA128 @ Killarney 11/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 128 · 2m1f Yie 159 · below its mark11/05/2025 · OR 128 par11/05128OR 128BHA129 @ Ballinrobe 27/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 129 · 2m57y Gd 161 · below its mark27/05/2025 · OR 129 parBHA129 @ Galway 02/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 129 · 2m175y Gd 159 · below its mark02/08/2025 · OR 129 par2/08129OR 1291 @ Listowel 25/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 17 · OR 129 · 2m Goo 155 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/09/2025 · OR 129 par1 @ Fairyhouse 30/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 137 · 2m Yie 159 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/11/2025 · OR 137 par30/111OR 1371 @ Leopardstown 29/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 137 · 2m4f103y Goo 160 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/12/2025 · OR 137 par3 @ Wincanton 23/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 132 · 2m3f179y Gd 170 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/03/2026 · OR 132 par23/033OR 1322 @ Aintree 10/04/2026 · Pos 19th of 21 · OR 129 · 2m103y Goo 162 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 129 par3 @ Aintree 15/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 125 · 2m4f Gd 154 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 125 par15/053OR 125projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-15Aintree39th8th+1
2026-04-10Aintree219th17th+2
2026-03-23Wincanton37th6th+1
2026-02-28Newbury3+1
2026-02-07Warwick3+1
2025-12-29Leopardstown18th4th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0525/0923/0315/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength42%

Delivery trend +1.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/05/20252nd7/282%88%+0.06
27/05/20252nd8/1397%80%-0.17
02/08/20257th12/137%57%+0.20
25/09/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
30/11/20254th11/142%67%+0.25
29/12/20258th25/10%53%+0.53
23/03/20267th50/10%14%+0.14
10/04/202619th50/10%10%+0.10
15/05/20269th25/10%11%+0.11