Pigeon House
6yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 117
Southwell · Old Stag 70th Birthday Handicap Hurdle · 1m 7f 182y
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Stratford | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Market Rasen | 2 | +2 | ||
| 2026-06-12 | Market Rasen | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Bangor-on-Dee | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-02 | Southwell | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Catterick | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +11.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/04/2025 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |
| 02/05/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 12/06/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 28/06/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 09/02/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 04/03/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 02/04/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 67% | +0.61 |
| 05/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |