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Wild Goose

6yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 121

Southwell · Old Stag 70th Birthday Handicap Hurdle · 1m 7f 182y

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Enthusiastic sort chased home a well-treated one at Kempton before resuming progress with a decisive victory at Hereford in April. Had still looked on a potentially handy mark prior to finishing down the field at Warwick the following month. Now needs to get back on the up following 5 months away.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Huntingdon 12/03/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 1m7f171y Goo 15912/0354 @ Plumpton 06/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 1m7f195y Gd 1584 @ Chepstow 25/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 2m11y Goo 15825/0443 @ Worcester 15/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR - · 2m Gd 154 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Ludlow 03/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 103 · 1m7f169y Goo 166 · beat its mark03/12/2025 · OR 103 par3/125OR 1034 @ Kempton 02/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 115 · 2m Goo 163 · below its mark02/02/2026 · OR 115 par4 @ Kempton 23/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 114 · 2m Gd 162 · below its mark23/03/2026 · OR 114 par23/034OR 1144 @ Hereford 16/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 115 · 2m53y Gd 165 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 115 par4 @ Warwick 04/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 122 · 2m Gd 170 · below its mark04/05/2026 · OR 122 par4/054OR 122projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-04Warwick45th5th0
2026-04-16Hereford41st1st0
2026-03-23Kempton42nd2nd0
2026-02-02Kempton44th4th0
2025-12-03Ludlow51st2nd−1
2025-10-15Worcester35th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0315/1023/034/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength58%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/03/20253rd8/158%71%+0.14
06/04/20255th6/492%0%-0.92
25/04/20252nd18/15%88%+0.82
15/10/20255th14/126%71%+0.45
03/12/20251st13/266%100%+0.34
02/02/20264th11/271%67%-0.04
23/03/20262nd9/488%86%-0.02
16/04/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
04/05/20265th6/492%43%-0.49