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4

Italian Spirit

10yo Gelding · 10-9 · OR 87

Southwell · Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Conditional Jockeys' Training Series Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 88y

#4

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Clearly been one with issues since winning bumper/maiden for Olly Murphy earlier in his career. Standout effort last season when runner-up in soft-ground handicap chase at Ffos Las in April. Hard to be confident back hurdling for yard without a win in 6½ months.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Taunton 08/02/2022 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 114 · 2m3f1y Goo 161 · below its mark08/02/2022 · OR 114 par8/024OR 1143 @ Uttoxeter 04/05/2024 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 110 · 2m3f207y Sft 142 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/05/2024 · OR 110 par4 @ Leicester 30/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 105 · 2m4f110y Sft 153 · below its mark30/11/2025 · OR 105 par30/114OR 1054 @ Wincanton 29/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 100 · 2m4f35y Hvy 162 · below its mark29/01/2026 · OR 100 par5 @ Leicester 12/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 97 · 2m4f25y Hvy 168 · below its mark12/02/2026 · OR 97 par12/025OR 975 @ Leicester 24/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 92 · 2m6f151y Sft 168 · below its mark24/02/2026 · OR 92 par5 @ Exeter 17/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 87 · 3m54y GS 155 · beat its mark17/03/2026 · OR 87 par17/035OR 875 @ Ffos Las 12/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 86 · 2m3f83y Goo 155 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 86 par5 @ Cartmel 23/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 87 · 2m5f34y Gd 155 · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 87 par23/055OR 87projClass-projected finish: 4th of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-23Cartmel58th9th−1
2026-04-12Ffos Las52nd3rd−1
2026-03-17Exeter54th5th−1
2026-02-24Leicester55th6th−1
2026-02-12Leicester53rd4th−1
2026-01-29Wincanton45th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0229/0117/0323/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 40% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength49%

Delivery trend -3.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 4. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/02/20223rd13/266%78%+0.12
04/05/20243rd40/10%75%+0.75
30/11/20258th125/10%13%+0.13
29/01/20265th18/15%33%+0.28
12/02/20263rd8/158%60%+0.02
24/02/20265th11/142%33%-0.09
17/03/20264th14/126%70%+0.44
12/04/20262nd11/142%90%+0.48
23/05/20268th13/266%36%-0.29