3
Amy's Star
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 67
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
55%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength50%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-01 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength81%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 21/04/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 56% | -0.29 |
| 25/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 01/06/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 17/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 22/07/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 19/08/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 20% | -0.68 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 14/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |