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5

Chardu

5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 30

Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f

#10

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength87%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: +1.6
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Mahoning Valley 30/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 17 · 6f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 17 par30/03C6OR 17C6 @ Thistledown 07/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 105 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/05/2026 · OR 105 parC6 @ Thistledown 26/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 22 · 5f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 22 par26/05C6OR 22C6 @ Thistledown 15/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 24 · 1m Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 24 parC6 @ Thistledown 06/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 25 · 5f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 25 par6/07C6OR 25C6 @ Thistledown 23/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 25 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 25 parC5 @ Thistledown 05/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 28 · 5f110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 28 par5/08C5OR 28C8 @ Thistledown 24/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 34 · 1m 119 · below its mark24/08/2026 · OR 34 parC5 @ Thistledown 15/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 35 · 1m Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 35 par15/09C5OR 35projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Thistledown?8th5th+3
2026-08-24Thistledown?9th9th0
2026-08-05Thistledown?5th2nd+3
2026-07-23Thistledown?1st-1th+2
2026-07-06Thistledown?4th2nd+2
2026-06-15Thistledown?2nd0th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0315/065/0815/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 8-10 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -5.3% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/03/20267th25/10%25%+0.25
07/05/20263rd33/10%71%+0.71
26/05/20266th16/116%38%+0.22
15/06/20262nd4/179%80%+0.01
06/07/20264th10/147%40%-0.07
23/07/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
05/08/20265th16/116%0%-0.16
24/08/20269th16/116%0%-0.16
15/09/20268th33/10%22%+0.22