1
Come On Arlene
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 62
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength74%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 64% | -0.21 |
| 21/04/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 12/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 01/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 10/08/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 14/09/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |