10
Driven For Success
6yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 65
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength13%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/10/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 12/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 20% | -0.70 |
| 22/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 05/08/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 21/09/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |