9
Kerri's Miracle
7yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 58
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength25%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 21/04/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 12/05/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 16/06/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 13/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 17/08/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 03/09/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 21/09/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |