Kozy Night
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 60
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 2.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-04-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2025-03-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2024 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 21/11/2024 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 06/01/2025 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 20% | -0.72 |
| 06/03/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 09/04/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 27/10/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 12/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 09/09/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 21/09/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |