8
National Diamond
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 60
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-30 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 9-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 20/02/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 23/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 30/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 06/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 14/07/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 14% | -0.70 |
| 04/08/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 25/08/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 09/09/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |