5
Beautiful Mandate
6yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 73
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength62%
Delivery trend +4.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 22/01/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 12/03/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 24/03/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 09/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 06/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |