7
Dame Maude Chardin
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 72
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength48%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 30/03/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 27/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |
| 12/05/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 16/06/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 40% | -0.53 |
| 06/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 28/07/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 16/09/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |