Holiday Lights
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 70
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 22/04/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 05/05/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 28/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 18/08/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 08/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |