8
Legally Lucky
7yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 77
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength80%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 03/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 17/04/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |
| 27/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 18/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 08/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |